Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
